How stable are visions for protected area management? Stakeholder perspectives before and during a pandemic

Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on Journal blog. Scenario planning is increasingly used as a bottom-up approach managing complex social–ecological systems in response to multiple system stresses, climate emergency and competing policy priorities (Butler et al., 2020; Flynn 2018; Totin Wesche & Armitage, 2014). Envisioning one type of scenario process building normative scenarios, or visions, describing what should happen future (e.g. Metzger Pereira Rana 2020). Visions can help chart course, direct actions, enable policymakers identify opportunities facilitating change (Hamann Exploratory other hand, consider range plausible futures, could future. In comparison with exploratory visions have potentially greater relevance decision-makers, they focus specific desired particularly when combined participatory processes where stakeholders play key role shaping (Rounsevell Metzger, 2010). To better understand uncertainties, recent studies identified relationships between several drivers simultaneously (Garteizgogeascoa Maury 2017) by drawing complementary methods assess (Accastello 2019; Andreotti years, (PSP) has been inform uncertainties trade-offs conservation land-use planning, define management strategies towards sustainable futures (Burton Mangnus Palomo 2011; Vannier 2019). PSP facilitate dialogue experts stakeholders, enhancing relevancy acceptance scenarios (IPBES, 2016); promote social learning incorporation forms knowledge fill important gaps dynamics (Oteros-Rozas 2015); build consensus, trust cooperation among participants (Allington Barnaud Van Paassen, 2013; Kohler 2017); an integrated understanding landscape socioeconomic 2016; Peterson 2003; Wilkinson, 2012). However, there are challenges eliciting visions. While explicitly normative, value assumptions underlying often not reported, risking that certain worldviews dominate (Metzger 2010; Oteros-Rozas 2015; Thorn Furthermore, may be representative nuances real world, including scale, rate intensity (Bennett 2016). Despite increased attention assessing values nature Arias-Arévalo 2017; Chan Zafra-Calvo 2020), still need engage local protected areas (Robinson 2012) remains absence empirical evidence connecting such values, perceptions (Cebrián-Piqueras Another challenge relates assumption static do over time, leading their redundancy reflexive, adaptive decision-making once unexpected disruptions occur envisioning processes, elicited approximately 30-to 40-year period, revealing during working life children 2011) while enabling reflection possible changes legal (Mangnus different factors influence stability (i.e. resistance change) disruptive events regime shifts (Nilsson 2019), potential power relations ecosystem (Berbés-Blázquez Temporal explored some analyses, using time period horizons, example, March al. (2012), but these approaches account short-term disturbances affect Follow-up research explore rare methodologies employed date, context areas. same vein, shifting how gap (Raudsepp-Hearne Deliberation lead peoples' (Raymond Kenter, An individual's transcendental affected composition group community belong to, life-course individual societal changes, effect stresses shocks individuals communities inhabit largely unknown (Kendal Raymond, 2018). addition aggregation shifts, also through intergenerational replacement migration (Manfredo our knowledge, lack related shift large-scale perturbations, pandemics. During current COVID-19 pandemic particular, conserved significantly impacted decreased capacity, budgets effectiveness, impacts livelihoods (Strassburg 2020) globally varying activities, visitor services, stakeholder engagement threats (Waithaka 2021). Managers faced given reduced staffing budgets, resulting interrupted delayed monitoring ecosystems, invasive species restoration degraded habitat (Miller-Rushing There increases frequency amount visitation green spaces natural parks (Day, Lu dependent country- region-specific lockdown regulations. These resulted enforcement ecological (Hockings theoretical perturbations pathways Brown Hamilton provided opportunity happens actual shock affects waves, prolonged uncertainty after each wave. places, disturbance serve hypothetical substitute considering landscapes normally scale years decades. For result proxy overall global rise tourism past 100 partly attributed aging fitter populations countries (Eagles, 2004). study, we draw upon mixed-method design post-evaluation study enhance perceived change. We then examine whether elements (values, drivers) being shaped pandemic. Here, referred respondents' (hereafter ‘values’ simplicity), which include intrinsic, instrumental relational assigned people, places things SGNP (building Díaz García-Martin Himes Muraca, Drivers both biophysical, indirect drivers, based conceptual framework Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium Assessment, 2005). uncertain times salient mountain socio-ecological ecologically economically sensitive rapid consequences environments human well-being (Brunner Grêt-Regamey, Such case Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (SGNP), Spain, densely populated surrounding area, six million people living within 1-hr drive park. High rates compound biodiversity services pollution, water quality trampling/erosion, interpersonal conflict reflecting recreational goal interference user groups who contact hikers vs. bikers; Vaske difference beliefs even if no them philosophical use manage trail; Gómez-Limón Lucio, 1995; Rodríguez-Rodríguez 2017). track 1-year July 2019 October 2020, gathering comparative data issues from stakeholders. The second half coincided first waves Spain. Spain was European most particular region around area country. (SGNP) continental Mediterranean peri-urban mountainous 33,960 ha central designated national park 2013 (BOE, 2013). It long history high rates, it close proximity Spanish capital, Madrid (Rodríguez-Rodríguez ranked most-visited 2015 (INE, 2017), 2.4 visitors (PNSG, Aside recreation, holds cultural historical significance, supports livestock farming. uses its management. zoned into areas, official park, special protection Montes Valsaín forested similar status, peripheral zone designation protect composed 34 municipalities autonomous Castilla y León Madrid, covering 62,687 (excluding urban areas; Figure 1, Parque Nacional Guadarrama). plan outlined Master Plan Use Management (PRUG), developed approved (BOCM, BOCYL, facing interacting mass tensions management, achieving objectives development (López Pardo, Nieto Díaz, Other major drought vegetation ranges phenology, fuel loads increase risk forest fires (Doblas-Miranda Martínez-Vega Socioeconomic urbanization (Kuemmerle 2016), loss traditional pastoralism, traditions (Vías, conducted two phases (Figure 2), designed techniques depth breadth associations Preparatory work involved analysing review peer-reviewed grey literature. Phase carried out July–September 2019, developing semi-structured interview script. script graphical open-source narrative synthesis tool called STREAMLINE De Vries Lentsch, were form canvasses served backdrop move illustrated tiles corresponding various preferences (further described below). aim stimulate imagination conduct timely manner provide interviewer prompt further context. selected larger online catalogue customized re-drawn professionally company fit biophysical (see Burton Pérez-Soba selection all tested pilot interviews refined (S1). 2 designing follow-up survey, issued 1 year September 2020 regarding reflections methodology (S2). Stakeholders purposefully sampled professional connections determined either influential influenced decisions taken initial list expanded snowball technique, mentioned at least twice (as López-Rodríguez all, 38 interviewed representing levels government, technical staff Park, representatives sectoral non-profit organizations, others (Table 1). municipal regional/national government classifications represent state actors public policy-making general administration functions scales. respective directorates regional administrations share authority resources A third female (although 50% invitations women), 55% worked portion located whereas rest León. divided sections: (a) participant's relationship values; (b) encompassing actions uses; (c) 10 years; (d) change; (e) address (referred pathways). began question ease relatively short simple exercise, gradually increasing complexity questions following logical temporal flow. 40–80 min long, Spanish. They digitally recorded, transcribed translated English. elicit (1), presented canvass illustrating landscapes, biodiversity, clean air water, forming bonds, existence value. Participants Likert 5, 5 highest (2), 2040 foreseeable and/or children, too present so long-term Robinson 2011). steps. First, stylized depiction asked discuss prioritize envisaged represented tiles, Relevant derive regulating carbon mitigation; provisioning freshwater river tributaries, timber extraction managed Valsaín; spirituality peace. next part vision elicitation detail, placed three rows across canvas, highest, medium lowest preferences. range, already implemented degree action ranged transport measures, education programmes, maintaining multi-functionality economic rural support. permitted prohibited separate repeated exercise reflected activities hiking, biking, foraging, infrastructure introduced future, more parking lots, bus routes restaurants. Throughout blank offered new ideas original selection. (3) (4), literature discussions draft impacting last decade. This preliminary adapted piloting rank level importance (degree changes) 1–5. Next, note any missing categories illustrate arrows Finally, briefly reflect had (5) would take change, now Inductive thematic analysis transcripts systematically analyse concepts themes enabled us interpreted questions, thus allowing emerge, prevented restriction predetermined (Boutillier Using RQDA software (Huang, 2016) R platform (R Core Team, coded rounds coding: open coding emerging recursive mushroom-picking, pinecone collection, economies), axial products connected benefits), associated (S2, Table 2). linkages codes revised re-examining iterative process. occurring recorded. Vision descriptions created codes, illustrative quotes, aspects economy governance. Cultural roots—Providing benefits restoring uses: By 2040, recognized. Tourists visit villages, bringing locals. Municipalities decision-making. Traditional land valued passed generations, features Incentives subsidies attract find employment selling certified You talk know territory become managed…particularly influence, used. Up there, (gabarreros) generally went up collect firewood, brought sheep graze… face changes. (Culture association; male; 088) lot technicians, bureaucrats, politicians, specialists, say see but…what he knows theory practice. me, those about like actors, cattle ranchers, farmers, people. (Environmental NGO; 083) Integrated management—Balancing preservation enjoyment: multifunctional space protection, agriculture, harvesting, hard soft recreation. Trails uses, bathing hunting control overpopulation species. Livestock farming plans prevent fire maintain hydrological regimes. Combining because get involved, going preserve it. words, but, controlled carry you only preserve, end, achieve nothing. You'll lovely can't go (park staff; female; 040) very good model zones, exploitation zones zones. And raising associated. Besides, beneficial differences well regulated fires, problems seen Park. account. (private sector; 085) services—Prescription health well-being: capacity forests recognized absorbing mitigate Local food benefits. landscape's mental physical residents visitors, providing inspiration spirituality. Uses limited boundaries ensure continued flow services. population healthier, perhaps longer quality, than cities anthropized industrialized environments. What brings compensates everything invested save health, hospitals, doctors. (Tourism recreation; 067b) Water, storage, mitigation change: daily bread, without Guadarrama, I think city, sustainable, therefore, remain great subsist them. (Municipal government; 021) Natural heritage—Preserving nature: unique preserved generations. Endemic flora fauna exist delicate balance riverine, riparian ecosystems. Recreations, hiking enjoyed carefully zone, higher boundaries. Environmental education, programmes integral plan. SGNP….we stages forest, alpine intermediate oak enormous biodiversity. forests, relics autochthonous plants parks, must ask ourselves why closed Within world in, compensate elsewhere… super protective regulations learn that. (Regional 035) Rankings terms percentages Associations calculating arithmetic mean scores category vision. (approximately took place), survey obtain insights Individualized thank-you packages containing images sent stakeholder, reminder topics responses S3). Reminders rate. Out previously phase responded 5-point ranging strong disagreement, indifference, agreement agreement, option elaborate answers. results analysed descriptive analyses closed-end qualitative open-ended describe patterns stability, Illustrative quotes observations stability. follows guidelines ethical recommended Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, whereby purpose voluntary clearly explained participants, prior informed consent obtained writing, made aware withdraw time. All 18 age, agreed writing purposes contacted investigations. As deemed low psychological harm subject, processing personal data, project did require formal approval accordance Council's guidelines. Four main emerged inductive interviews. order occurrence respondents, follows: (34% respondents); management—balancing enjoyment (29%); (24%); (13%; belonging sectors private, non-profit, etc.) showed evenly distributed roots heritage preferred governments, split heritage, predominance (75%) Overall, appreciation (biodiversity, ecosystems), culture history, beauty highest-scored types, L